Critical Minerals in Agriculture: Fertilizers, Technology, and Food Security

Student project by Hasan Cruz

Overview

“Critical minerals in agriculture” refers to mineral commodities that are essential for food production and farm infrastructure, and that also face supply risks such as import dependence, concentrated production, geopolitical disruptions, or limited substitutes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains an official U.S. critical minerals list, and recent updates increasingly reflect the importance of agricultural minerals and inputs.

While critical minerals are often discussed in the context of clean energy like batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors, agriculture relies on its own set of critical mineral commodities, especially those tied to fertilizer supply and farm technology.

What counts as a “critical mineral” (and how the list is made)

The USGS approach can be simplified as:
A mineral is more likely to be considered “critical” when supply disruption could cause significant economic impacts, and when the likelihood + impact of disruption are meaningful.

Why this matters for agriculture:
When key fertilizer or technology minerals are constrained, farms don’t just pay more, they may have to change application rates, change crops/rotations, delay timing, or accept yield/quality risk.

The “agriculture-critical” minerals

Modern Agriculture depends on both fertilizer minders and technology-focused minerals.

Fertilizer minerals and nutrients

These directly support yields and crop quality.

Phosphorus (P) — from phosphate rock

Essential for energy transfer, root development, and growth
No practical substitute exists for plant nutrition

Potassium (K) — from potash

Supports water regulation, enzyme activation, disease resistance, and quality outcomes like fruit size and grain filling
High-yield cropping can quickly deplete soil K without replenishment

Technology minerals now shaping modern farming

As agriculture modernizes (precision ag, electrified equipment, sensors, data systems), farms increasingly rely on minerals used in electronics, motors, batteries, and solar. Examples include:

Copper: wiring, motors, electrical systems
Silicon: semiconductors and solar panels
Graphite & lithium: batteries for electric equipment, storage, and farm tools
Rare earth elements (e.g., neodymium/praseodymium): high-strength magnets in motors and precision equipment

Where supply chain vulnerability shows up

Critical designation signals real-world risk. The white paper highlights several recurring risk drivers:

Import reliance and supply concentration
- The U.S. relies heavily on imported potash, with supply concentrated in a small set of producing/exporting countries
- Phosphate is less import-dependent, but global reserves and expansion are highly concentrated
Geopolitics, strikes, and logistics
- Even when a mineral exists globally, the “path to the farm” can be fragile:
  - Sanctions, export constraints, transport bottlenecks (ports/rail), and regional instability can ripple directly into price and delivery timing
Energy volatility (especially for nitrogen fertilizer)
- Nitrogen is abundant in the air, but turning it into fertilizer requires energy-intensive industrial production:
  - When natural gas or power costs rise, or supply is disrupted, fertilizer becomes expensive fast

Washington grows high-value, fertilizer-dependent crops and has narrow timing windows where delays matter. Highlights of major WA crops and production value (2025) are:

Apples (~$1.99B)
Potatoes (~$1.16B)
Wheat (~$672M)
Hops (~$406M)
Cherries (~$290M)

Input disruptions can translate into production and revenue risk for agricultural operations in Washington State. Tree fruit depends on consistent potassium and precisely timed boron during bloom and fruit set, so shortages or price spikes can reduce quality returns. Potatoes have high potassium needs and can be sensitive to sulfur for quality and storability, making volatility costly. Wheat relies on nitrogen and phosphorus for yield and grain protein, so sustained high prices force difficult rate and rotation decisions. The Tri-Cities’ mix of irrigated agriculture, freight access, and energy research makes it well-suited for piloting nutrient and supply-chain resilience efforts.

What resilience can look like (practical strategies)

Resilience measures should match the source of risk. Nitrogen costs often track energy markets, therefore risk management centers on improving cost visibility and strengthening reliable supply pathways. For phosphorus and potash, where supply is concentrated, and logistics matter, diversifying sources and planning seasonal procurement can reduce exposure. Longer-term strategies include expanding nutrient recovery and recycling and using early-warning indicators (import concentration, energy-driven cost pressure, affordability, and technology-related mineral demand) to anticipate disruptions.

Impact

Critical minerals shape agriculture through a direct chain of impacts: when fertilizer and technology minerals face supply disruption or price volatility, farms experience higher input costs and tighter timing constraints, forcing changes in application rates, crop choices, or equipment investment, ultimately affecting yields, quality, and profitability. Because nitrogen fertilizer is closely tied to energy markets, spikes in fuel or power costs can rapidly raise production costs, while concentrated global supplies of phosphorus and potash increase exposure to trade, logistics, and geopolitical shocks. As agriculture continues to adopt precision tools and electrified equipment, dependence also grows on minerals used in electronics, motors, and batteries, making supply-chain resilience increasingly important for maintaining reliable production and protecting food affordability.